Vaccine Bounce or Labour Collapse? Debate on Latest Voting Intention in Britain With Tories Ahead

If an election was “held tomorrow”, 43% of Britons would vote for the Conservative party as opposed to the 29% who would support Keir Starmer and his Labour party, according to the latest YouGov/Times voting intention figures.

The data published on 16 April also showed that Boris Johnson was leading in the “best Prime Minister” category of the poll, with 34% of respondents opting for his candidacy versus that of Labour’s Starmer (26%). Over a third of Britons were undecided as to who should rule the government. 

​The voting intention results have ignited a debate on whether the Conservatives are merely enjoying the public’s approval due to the ongoing national vaccination programme, expediting the end of Covid-19 lockdown – or whether Labour’s poor performance is to blame, or thank in this case.

Compared to the figures of last year, the Tories have suffered a drop from 52% to this year’s 43%, while Labour remained in the same digits – 28% in 2020 and 29% in 2021.

Henry Nicholls
A man wearing a mask of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, protests outside Downing Street in London, Britain August 28, 2019.

Given the difference, the ruling Conservatives face a drop of almost 10%, which could hardly signify a great win for Johnson and his fellow party members.

However, compared to the figures of January 2021, when England entered the third national lockdown, the Tories gained a couple of points, going from 41% to 43% in April, which marked the period of time the government was actively rolling out the vaccination programme.

In contrast, compared to the beginning of the year Labour’s popularity was at 34% and only got worse by April (29%).

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